Papers

B.B. Sarojini, P.A. Stott, E. Black (2016) Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation. Nature Climate Change DOI:10.1038/nclimate2976
(See assoc. blog: Attributing changes in regional rainfall to human activity)

O. Bellprat, F. Doblas-Reyes (2016) Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations GRL DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067189

O . Bellprat, F.C. Lott, C. Gulizia,  H.R Parker, L.A. Pampuch, I. Pinto, A. Ciavarella, P.A. Stott (2015) Unusual past dry and wet rainy seasons over Southern Africa and South America from a climate perspective. Weather and Climate Extremes DOI:10.1016/j.wace2015.07.001

B. Christiansen (2015) The Role of the Selection Problem and Non-Gaussianity in Attribution of Single Events to Climate Change. J. Climate, 28, 9873–9891. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0318.1

N. Christidis, G.S. Jones, and P.A. Stott (2014) Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave, Nature Climate Change, 5, 46-50, 2015 DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE2468 

N. Christidis, P.A. Stott, and F.W. Zwiers (2014) Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes, Clim. Dynamics, early view (online) DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2408-x

N. Christidis, P.A. Stott, A. Scaife, A. Arribas, G.S. Jones, D. Copsey, J.R. Knight, and W.J. Tennant (2013) A new HadGEM3-A based system for attribution of weather and climate-related extreme events, J. Climate, 26, 2756-2783, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00169.1

K. Haustein, F.E.L Otto, P. Uhe, N. Schaller, M.R. Allen, L. Hermanson, N. Christidis, P. McLean and H. Cullen (2016) Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs Environmental Research Letters, 11, 6 DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064006

A. King, G.J. van Oldenborgh, D.J. Karoly, S.C. Lewis and H. Cullen (2015) Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences, Environ. Res. Lett. 10 054002, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002

O. Krueger, G. Hegerl and S. Tett (2015) Evaluation of mechanisms of hot and cold days in climate models over Central Europe, Env. Res. Lett. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014002

F.C. Lott, M. Gordon, R.J. Graham, A.A. Scaife and M. Vellinga (2014) Reliability of African climate prediction and attribution across timescales, Environ. Res. Lett DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104017

F. Lott and P.A. Stott (2015) Evaluating simulated fraction of attributable risk using climate observations Mon. Weather Review. (Submitted) DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0566.1

N. Massey, R. Jones, F. Otto, T. Aina, S. Wilson, J. Murphy, D. Hassell, H. Yamazaki and M. Allen (2014) weather@home – development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution, QJ Roy Met Soc, DOI: 10.1002/qj.2455

G.J. van Oldenborgh, R. J. Haarsma, H. de Vries, M. R. Allen (2015) Cold extremes in North America vs. mild weather in Europe: the winter 2013/2014 in the context of a warming world, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 707–714. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00036.1

G.J. van Oldenborgh, D.B. Stephenson, A. Sterl, R. Vautord, P. Yiou, S.S. Drijfhout, H. von Storch and H. van den Dool (2015) Drivers of the 2013/14 winter floods in the UK. Nature Climate Change, 5, 490–491. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2612

G.J. van Oldenborgh, S. Philip, E. Aalbers, R. Vautard, F. Otto, K. Haustein, F. Habets, R. Singh, and H. Cullen (2016) Rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France and Germany to climate change, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., DOI:10.5194/hess-2016-308

R. Orth, and S.I. Seneviratne (2015) Introduction of a simple-model-based land surface dataset for Europe. Env. Res. Lett., 10, 044012, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044012

H.R. Parker, R.J. Cornforth, E. Boyd, R. James, F.E.L. Otto, M.R. Allen (2015) Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy. Weather DOI: 10.1002/wea.2542

Rupp, S. Li, N. Massey, S.N. Sparrow, P.W. Mote, M. Allen (2015) Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 2392-2400, DOI:10.1002/2014GL062683

N. Schaller, F.E.L. Otto, G.J. van Oldenborgh, N.R. Massey, S. Sparrow and M.R. Allen (2014) The heavy precipitation event of May–June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, S69-S72.

N. Schaller, A.L. Kay, R. Lamb, N.R. Massey, G.J. van Oldenborgh, F.E.L. Otto, S.N. Sparrow, R. Vautard, P. Yiou, I. Ashpole, A. Bowery, S.M. Crooks, K. Haustein, C. Huntingford, W.J. Ingram, R.G. Jones, T. Legg, J. Miller, J. Skeggs, D. Wallom, A. Weisheimer, S. Wilson, P.A. Stott, M.R. Allen (2016) Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2927

M. Schwab, I. Meinke (2015) Aspekte der lernenden Stadt im Klimawandelkontext – Stakeholder Perspektiven auf regionale Klima Services im Kontext von Ostseesturmfluten“,Deutscher Kongress für Geographie, (accepted)

W. Shi, N. Schaller, D. MacLeod, T.N. Palmer, A. Weisheimer (2015) Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1002/2014GL06282

S. Sippel and F.E.L. Otto (2014) Beyond climatological extremes – assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate. Climate Change, June 2014 DOI:10.1007/s1058

P. Stott (2015) Weather risks in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 5, 516-517 DOI:10.1038/nclimate2640

P.A. Stott, N. Christidis, F. Otto, Y. Sun, J.P. Vanderlinden, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R. Vautard, H. von Storch, P. Walton, P. Yiou, F. Zwiers (2015) Attribution of extreme climate events. WIRES Climate Change. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380

E.B. Suckling, G.J. van Oldenborgh, J.M. Eden, E. Hawkins (2016) An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts Climate Dynamics DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3255-8

P. Uhe, F.E.L. Otto, K. Haustein, G.J. van Oldenborgh, A. King, D. Wallom, M.R. Allen, H. Cullen (2016) Comparison of Methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences Geophysical Research Letters doi: 10.1002/2016GL069568

A. Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer (2014) On the Reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts, J. R. Soc. Interface, 11, 9620131162, doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.1162

A. Weisheimer, F. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung and T.N. Palmer (2011) On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046455.

K. Whan, J. Zscheischler, R. Orth, M. Shongwe, M. Rahimi, E.O. Asare and S.I. Seneviratne (2015) Impact of soil moisture on extreme maximum temperatures in Europe. Weather and Climate Extremes doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.05.001

Contributions to Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective (Special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol 95, No. 9, September 2014)

J.A. Anel, J.I. Lopez-Moreno, F.E.L Otto, S. Vicente-Serrano, N Schaller, N. Massey, T. Buisan, M.R. Allen (2014) The extreme snow accumulation in the Western Spanish Pyrenees during Winter and Spring 2013. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95 (9), S73-S76.

N.C Christidis, P.A. Stott (2014) The effect of anthropogenic climate change on the cold spring of 2013 in the United Kingdom. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95 (9), S79-S82.

B.W. Dong , R.T. Sutton, and L. Shaffrey (2014) The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S62-S66.

S.C. Herring, M.P. Hoerling, T.C. Peterson, P.A. Stott (2014) Summary and broader context. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S82-S84.

N. Schaller, F.E.L. Otto, G.J. van Oldenborgh, N.R. Massey, S. Sparrow, M.R. Allen (2014) The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the Upper Danube and Elbe basins. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95 (9), S69-S72.

P.A. Stott, G.C. Hegerl, G.C. Herring,  M.P. Hoerling, T.C. Peterson,X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers (2014) Introduction to explaining extreme events of 2013 from a climate perspective. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S1-S2.

H. Von Storch, F. Feser, S. Haeseler, C. Lefebvre, M. Stendel (2014) A violent midlatitude storm in Northern Germany and Denmark, 28 October, 2013. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S76-S78.

P.. Yiou, J. Cattiaux (2014) Contribution of atmospheric circulation to wet southern European winter of 2013. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95 (9), S66-S69.

Contributions to Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective (Special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society)

K. Bergaoui, D. Mitchell, R. Zaaboul, R. McDonnell, F.E.L. Otto, M. Allen (2015) Implications of the unprecendented drought of 2014 in the southern Levant region. Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 96 (12)

N. Christidis, P.A. Stott (2015) Extreme rainfall in the United Kingdom during winter 2013/2014: The role of atmospheric circulation and climate change.“Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

A. Hannart, C. Vera, F.E.L. Otto, B. Cerne (2015) Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on the Argentinean heat wave of December 2013. Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

T. Marthews, F.E.L. Otto, D.M. Mitchell, S.J. Dadson, R.G. Jones (2015) The 2014 drought in the Horn of Africa: attribution of meteorological drivers. Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

F.E.L. Otto, C.A.S. Coelho, A. King, E. Coughlan de Perez, Y. Wada, G.J. van Oldenborgh, R. Haarsma, K. Haustein, P. Uhe, M. van Aalst, J.A. Aravequia, W. Almeida, H. Cullen (2015) Rapidly increasing water consumption, not climate change, main driver of 2014/15 water shortage in Southeast Brazil. “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

S. Rosier, S. Dean, S. Stuart, T. Carey-Smith, M.  Black, N. Massey (2015) Extreme Rainfall in Early July 2014 in Northland, New Zealand – Was There an Anthropogenic Influence? Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

Siswanto, G. J. van oldenborgh, G. van der Schrier, G. Lenderink, B. van den Hurk (2015) Trends in high-precipitation events in Jakarta made the flooding of January 2014 more likely. “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

L. Song, Y. Sun, W. Dong, B. Zhou, P.A. Stott, G. Ren (2015) Role of anthropogenic forcing in 2014 hot spring in Northern China. Explaining extreme events of 2014 from a climate perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

R. Vautard, G. J. van Oldenborgh, S. Tao, B. Dubuisson, G. Lenderink, A. Ribes, S. Planton, J.-M. Soubeyroux, P. Yiou (2015) Extreme fall 2014 precipitations in the Cévennes mountain range. “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)

K. Wolter, M. Hoerling, J. K. Eischeid, G. J. van Oldenborgh, X.-W. Quan, J. E. Walshd, T. N. Chasea and R. M. Dole (2015) How unusual was the cold winter of 2013-14 in the Upper Midwest?. “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96 (12)